Economic impact of tuberculosis mortality in 120 countries and the cost of not achieving the Sustainable Development Goals tuberculosis targets: A full-income analysis
The Lancet Global Health — Silva S, Arinaminpathy N, Atun R, et al. | September 16, 2021
Findings project that profound economic and health losses will occur if the SDG (UN Sustainable Development Goals) tuberculosis mortality target is not achieved by 2030, with greatest effects of delay anticipated to occur in sub-Saharan Africa.
Full-income losses in 120 countries were estimated to determine the financial impact of not meeting the SDG tuberculosis mortality target until 2045, and to assess the contribution of COVID-19-related disruptions.
Estimates indicate occurrence of 31·8 million tuberculosis deaths from 2020 to 2050, corresponding to a financial loss of US$17·5 trillion (14·9 trillion–20·4 trillion).
23·8 million tuberculosis deaths and $13·1 trillion in economic losses can be prevented if the SDG tuberculosis mortality target is met in 2030.
5·7 million tuberculosis deaths (5·1 million–8·1 million) and $3·0 trillion (2·5 trillion–3·5 trillion) in economic losses is the cost of inaction of not meeting the SDG tuberculosis mortality target until 2045 (vs 2030).
COVID-19-associated disruptions add $290·3 billion (260·2 billion–570·1 billion) to this cost.
Impacted countries, donor nations, and the private sector are recommended to redouble efforts to finance tuberculosis programmes and research.
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